The human insights missing from Big Data

By Tricia Wang

In ancient Greece, when anyone from slaves to soldiers, poets and politicians, needed to make a big decision on life's most important questions, like, "Should I get married?" or "Should we embark on this voyage?" or "Should our army advance into this territory?" they all consulted the oracle.

So this is how it worked: you would bring her a question and you would get on your knees, and then she would go into this trance. It would take a couple of days, and then eventually she would come out of it, giving you her predictions as your answer.

From the oracle bones of ancient China to ancient Greece to Mayan calendars, people have craved for prophecy in order to find out what's going to happen next. And that's because we all want to make the right decision. We don't want to miss something. The future is scary, so it's much nicer knowing that we can make a decision with some assurance of the outcome.

Photo credit: Merrill College of Journalism Press Releases on Visual Hunt / CC BY-NC

Well, we have a new oracle, and it's name is big data, or we call it "Watson" or "deep learning" or "neural net." And these are the kinds of questions we ask of our oracle now, like, "What's the most efficient way to ship these phones from China to Sweden?" Or, "What are the odds of my child being born with a genetic disorder?" Or, "What are the sales volume we can predict for this product?"

Now, despite the size of this industry, the returns are surprisingly low. Investing in big data is easy, but using it is hard. Over 73 percent of big data projects aren't even profitable, and I have executives coming up to me saying, "We're experiencing the same thing. We invested in some big data system, and our employees aren't making better decisions. And they're certainly not coming up with more breakthrough ideas."

This is all really interesting to me, because I'm a technology ethnographer. I study and I advise companies on the patterns of how people use technology, and one of my interest areas is data. So, why is having more data not helping us make better decisions, especially for companies who have all these resources to invest in these big data systems? Why isn't it getting any easier for them?

I've witnessed the struggle firsthand. In 2009, I started a research position with Nokia. And at the time, Nokia was one of the largest cell phone companies in the world, dominating emerging markets like China, Mexico and India -- all places where I had done a lot of research on how low-income people use technology. And I spent a lot of extra time in China getting to know the informal economy. I did things like working as a street vendor selling dumplings to construction workers. Or I did fieldwork, spending nights and days in internet cafés, hanging out with Chinese youth, so I could understand how they were using games and mobile phones and using it between moving from the rural areas to the cities.

Big Data Didn't Predict the Mass Adoption of the SmartPhone in China

I've witnessed the struggle firsthand. In 2009, I started a research position with Nokia. And at the time, Nokia was one of the largest cell phone companies in the world, dominating emerging markets like China, Mexico and India -- all places where I had done a lot of research on how low-income people use technology. And I spent a lot of extra time in China getting to know the informal economy. I did things like working as a street vendor selling dumplings to construction workers. Or I did fieldwork, spending nights and days in internet cafés, hanging out with Chinese youth, so I could understand how they were using games and mobile phones and using it between moving from the rural areas to the cities.

“So why is having more data not helping us make better decisions, especially for companies who have all these resources to invest in big data systems?”

Through all of this qualitative evidence that I was gathering, I was starting to see so clearly that a big change was about to happen among low-income Chinese people. Even though they were surrounded by advertisements for luxury products like fancy toilets -- who wouldn't want one? -- and apartments and cars, through my conversations with them, I found out that the ads the actually enticed them the most were the ones for iPhones, promising them this entry into this high-tech life. And even when I was living with them in urban slums, I saw people investing over half of their monthly income into buying a phone, and increasingly, they were "shanzhai," which are affordable knock-offs of iPhones and other brands. They're very usable. Does the job.

And after years of living with migrants and working with them and just really doing everything that they were doing, I started piecing all these data points together -- from the things that seem random, like me selling dumplings, to the things that were more obvious, like tracking how much they were spending on their cell phone bills. And I was able to create this much more holistic picture of what was happening. And that's when I started to realize that even the poorest in China would want a smartphone, and that they would do almost anything to get their hands on one.

You have to keep in mind, iPhones had just come out, it was 2009, so this was, like, eight years ago, and Androids had just started looking like iPhones. And a lot of very smart and realistic people said, "Those smartphones -- that's just a fad. Who wants to carry around these heavy things where batteries drain quickly and they break every time you drop them?" But I had a lot of data, and I was very confident about my insights, so I was very excited to share them with Nokia.

But Nokia was not convinced, because it wasn't big data. They said, "We have millions of data points, and we don't see any indicators of anyone wanting to buy a smartphone, and your data set of 100, as diverse as it is, is too weak for us to even take seriously." And I said, "Nokia, you're right. Of course you wouldn't see this, because you're sending out surveys assuming that people don't know what a smartphone is, so of course you're not going to get any data back about people wanting to buy a smartphone in two years. Your surveys, your methods have been designed to optimize an existing business model, and I'm looking at these emergent human dynamics that haven't happened yet. We're looking outside of market dynamics so that we can get ahead of it." Well, you know what happened to Nokia? Their business fell off a cliff. This -- this is the cost of missing something. It was unfathomable.

But Nokia's not alone. I see organizations throwing out data all the time because it didn't come from a quant model or it doesn't fit in one. But it's not big data's fault. It's the way we use big data; it's our responsibility. Big data's reputation for success comes from quantifying very specific environments, like electricity power grids or delivery logistics or genetic code, when we're quantifying in systems that are more or less contained.

But not all systems are as neatly contained. When you're quantifying and systems are more dynamic, especially systems that involve human beings, forces are complex and unpredictable, and these are things that we don't know how to model so well. Once you predict something about human behavior, new factors emerge, because conditions are constantly changing. That's why it's a never-ending cycle. You think you know something, and then something unknown enters the picture. And that's why just relying on big data alone increases the chance that we'll miss something, while giving us this illusion that we already know everything.

And what makes it really hard to see this paradox and even wrap our brains around it is that we have this thing that I call the quantification bias, which is the unconscious belief of valuing the measurable over the immeasurable. And we often experience this at our work. This is a very appealing message, because there's nothing wrong with quantifying; it's actually very satisfying. I get a great sense of comfort from looking at an Excel spreadsheet, even very simple ones.

image: Mark Smiciklas at Intersection Consulting

But the problem is that quantifying is addictive. And when we forget that and when we don't have something to kind of keep that in check, it's very easy to just throw out data because it can't be expressed as a numerical value. It's very easy just to slip into silver-bullet thinking, as if some simple solution existed. Because this is a great moment of danger for any organization, because oftentimes, the future we need to predict -- it isn't in that haystack, but it's that tornado that's bearing down on us outside of the barn. There is no greater risk than being blind to the unknown. It can cause you to make the wrong decisions. It can cause you to miss something big.

But we don't have to go down this path. It turns out that the oracle of ancient Greece holds the secret key that shows us the path forward. Now, recent geological research has shown that the Temple of Apollo, where the most famous oracle sat, was actually built over two earthquake faults. And these faults would release these petrochemical fumes from underneath the Earth's crust, and the oracle literally sat right above these faults, inhaling enormous amounts of ethylene gas, these fissures. 

It's all true, and that's what made her babble and hallucinate and go into this trance-like state. She was high as a kite!

The Oracle by Camillo Miola

So how did anyone -- How did anyone get any useful advice out of her in this state? Well, you see those people surrounding the oracle? You see those people holding her up, and you see that guy on your left-hand side holding the orange notebook? Well, those were the temple guides, and they worked hand in hand with the oracle. When inquisitors would come and get on their knees, that's when the temple guides would get to work, because after they asked her questions, they would observe their emotional state, and then they would ask them follow-up questions, like, "Why do you want to know this prophecy? Who are you? What are you going to do with this information?" And then the temple guides would take this more ethnographic, this more qualitative information, and interpret the oracle's babblings.

So the oracle didn't stand alone, and neither should our big data systems.

Now to be clear, I'm not saying that big data systems are huffing ethylene gas, or that they're even giving invalid predictions. The total opposite. But what I am saying is that in the same way that the oracle needed her temple guides, our big data systems need them, too. They need people like ethnographers and user researchers who can gather what I call thick data. This is precious data from humans, like stories, emotions and interactions that cannot be quantified. It's the kind of data that I collected for Nokia that comes in in the form of a very small sample size, but delivers incredible depth of meaning.

And what makes it so thick and meaty is the experience of understanding the human narrative. And that's what helps to see what's missing in our models. Thick data grounds our business questions in human questions, and that's why integrating big and thick data forms a more complete picture. Big data is able to offer insights at scale and leverage the best of machine intelligence, whereas thick data can help us rescue the context loss that comes from making big data usable, and leverage the best of human intelligence. And when you actually integrate the two, that's when things get really fun, because then you're no longer just working with data you've already collected. You get to also work with data that hasn't been collected. You get to ask questions about why: Why is this happening?

“Thick data grounds our business questions in human questions, and that’s why integrating big and thick data forms a more complete picture”

Now, when Netflix did this, they unlocked a whole new way to transform their business. Netflix is known for their really great recommendation algorithm, and they had this $1 million prize for anyone who could improve it. And there were winners. But Netflix discovered the improvements were only incremental. So to really find out what was going on, they hired an ethnographer, Grant McCracken, to gather thick data insights. And what he discovered was something that they hadn't seen initially in the quantitative data. He discovered that people loved to binge-watch. In fact, people didn't even feel guilty about it. They enjoyed it.

So Netflix was like, "Oh. This is a new insight." So they went to their data science team, and they were able to scale this big data insight in with their quantitative data. And once they verified it and validated it, Netflix decided to do something very simple but impactful. They said, "instead of offering the same show from different genres or more of the different shows from similar users, we'll just offer more of the same show. We'll make it easier for you to binge-watch." And they didn't stop there. They did all these things to redesign their entire viewer experience, to really encourage binge-watching. It's why people and friends disappear for whole weekends at a time, catching up on shows like "Master of None." By integrating big data and thick data, they not only improved their business, but they transformed how we consume media. And now their stocks are projected to double in the next few years.

But this isn't just about watching more videos or selling more smartphones. For some, integrating thick data insights into the algorithm could mean life or death, especially for the marginalized. All around the country, police departments are using big data for predictive policing, to set bond amounts and sentencing recommendations in ways that reinforce existing biases. NSA's Skynet machine learning algorithm has possibly aided in the deaths of thousands of civilians in Pakistan from misreading cellular device metadata. As all of our lives become more automated, from automobiles to health insurance or to employment, it is likely that all of us will be impacted by the quantification bias.

Now, the good news is that we've come a long way from huffing ethylene gas to make predictions. We have better tools, so let's just use them better. Let's integrate the big data with the thick data. Let's bring our temple guides with the oracles, and whether this work happens in companies or nonprofits or government or even in the software, all of it matters, because that means we're collectively committed to making better data, better algorithms, better outputs and better decisions. This is how we'll avoid missing that something.

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With astronaut eyes and ethnographer curiosity, Tricia Wang helps corporations grow by discovering the unknown about their customers. She has taught global organizations how to identify new customers and markets hidden behind their data, amplified IDEO's design thinking practice as an expert-in-residence, researched the social evolution of the Chinese internet, and written about the "elastic self," an emergent form of interaction in a virtual world. Wang is the co-founder of Sudden Compass, a consulting firm that helps companies unlock new growth opportunities by putting customer obsession into practice.

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This is an extract from a 2016 talk delivered by Tricia Wang entitled "The Human Insights Missing from Big Data" delivered at TedxCambridge, published under a Creative Commons Attribution License

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The 5 types of influencers you should work with

Influencer marketing can be one of the most powerful ways to get people interested in an issue. Simply put, it's about getting people of influence to speak about your brand. But it's more than a tactic - considerations include making sure your campaign is actually worth talking about, and then making sure you involve the right influencers. 

That's where our 5 types of influencers comes in. Most of the discussion about influencers is about a) number of followers, b) levels of engagement, and c) topic relevance. However, in practice we found that there's not ONE kind of influencer that's right for a campaign - there are FIVE. Namely, Pioneers, Amplifiers, Authorities, Participators, and Scalers. 

We've shied away from the typical industry language of "brand influencers", "micro-influencers", "influencers", and "celebs" because those specifically refer to number of followers rather than the role the influencer plays in a campaign. 

To illustrate how we work with these influencers, and explain the categories we'll use a live campaign example... 

On World Water Day , 24th March 2018, Water Advocate Mina Guli announced that she will be running 100 marathons in 100 days for 1 reason: Water. We were tasked with getting this announcement out on social media, and ensuring that her message of water conservation came through as clearly as the message of ultra endurance inspiration. 

Using our Social Media Fireworks approach, we reached over 18 million people. But as you'll see in this post, it is not only that we reached LOTS of people, it is that we were joined by the RIGHT people. Some of the most influential and credible players in the space of water conservation, sport, and business supported the launch on World Water Day by mentioning Mina's campaign directly as well as the #everydropcounts hashtag.

Here are the 5 types of influencers we message and try to involve when we do a Social Media Firework: 

Pioneers

The first type of influencer we’re looking at are the Pioneers -- the cool people, the front-runners. Pioneers are plugged into the scene, they're passionate about the issues.

The idea is to let these people in on the campaign as early as possible. You may even get some good ideas from your Pioneers that will improve your message. 

Ok folks - this is, as ever, another impressive effort by the amazing @minaguli . I have rarely met someone more committed to water. Go Mina!! #everydropcounts https://t.co/kTMFY8ia3I

— Giulio Boccaletti (@G_Boccaletti) March 22, 2018

By 2030 humanity will be short of water by 40%. @minaguli is running 100 marathons in 100 days to raise awareness.

— Aejaz Khan (@dotkhan) March 25, 2018

In relation to the RunningDry campaign, the Pioneer Influencers we reached out to were fellow water activists and users whose feeds consisted largely of water-related content. For RunningDry, we were lucky enough to be building on the #Run4Water campaign, where we spent months ensuring Mina was following the key Pioneers in the water crisis conversation, and often getting reciprocal follows as a result. This allowed the pioneer outreach for the RunningDry launch to be carried out a lot more easily, because we could simply look through Mina’s followers for the pioneer influencers, reach out to them via DM and often have their support based on this already existing relationship.

Amplifiers

The next type of influencer to consider is the Amplifier -- they are are interested in your topic, and have a high number of engaged followers. Generally called "Influencers" they often drive the highest volume of engagement and reach in a campaign. Generally speaking their following is in the range of 100k - 1m but just as important as their large reach is their clout as conversation leaders online (you can tell by their engagement rates generally). 

The amazing @minaguli is an inspiration! @YGLvoices @CityofCT #EveryDropCounts 💦 https://t.co/Ej0DjKVGgW

— Lindiwe Mazibuko (@LindiMazibuko) March 22, 2018

"If water is life, surely water scarcity — which is going to affect all of us — should be on the front page." — @minaguli on why she started @Thirst4Water 💧 #WorldWaterDay pic.twitter.com/NMEfZjvEiz

— AM to DM by BuzzFeed News (@AM2DM) March 22, 2018

Authorities

Authorities bring an added level of trust and credibility to a campaign. We're talking about institutions like universities, leading non-profits in the space, academics, and experts on the topic. 

Wow, stay hydrated. Go Mina!

— Peter Gleick (@PeterGleick) March 22, 2018

Good luck! Stay hydrated. Get in touch when you are done. https://t.co/9hInKl4IL1

— Seth M. Siegel (@SethMSiegel) March 24, 2018

For Running Dry our Authority outreach included accounts like the verified World Resources, to individual gatekeepers such as Seth Siegel, author of Let There Be Water. Their participation showed people that Mina is a trusted and credible campaigner in the space of water conservation.

Participators

Participators comprise the largest proportion of your followers. They are the people who choose to follow you simply because they like your content or what you're talking about. On aggregate, participators can be the most influential of everyone in your campaign. To gain the support of Participators you need to maintain a consistently high level of relevance and entertainment value. It also really helps to activate their involvement using other channels, such as email newsletters or calls for involvement on TV and radio interviews. And of course, acknowledge and thank people for getting involved and supporting - like posts, comment back, share.

Thanks for the moderate "impractical", Stephen. Generally, it's met with "mad" "impossible" ... but this is my 100%, all in 💧🌎

— Mina Guli (@minaguli) March 22, 2018

So right, Jenine, that's why I'm giving my all. 100% commitment: 100 marathons 100 days because #EveryDropCounts now

— Mina Guli (@minaguli) March 22, 2018

Scalers

The Scalers are Celebs with mega-reach because of their huge follower counts. Even a simple share or retweet from them can be a major boost. Having their support helps you take your campaign into the mainstream. 

Relatively light engagement from celebrities including Maria Sharapova, Karen Davila, and Don Riddell brought the campaign into millions of people's timelines. These were unpaid endorsements based on the strength of Mina's story and the importance of her message. 

Incredible. 👊🏻🙌🏻 https://t.co/VYQ7omHYIU

— Maria Sharapova (@MariaSharapova) March 22, 2018

It’s #WorldWaterDay! Please check out my friend @minaguli’s page! She has run the world - giving attention to the water crisis! 💦💦 https://t.co/R2kRRF4XpE

— Karen Davila (@iamkarendavila) March 22, 2018

Online and Offline Influence 

Lastly, Mainstream Media and Social Media are a great compliment. It's always encouraging for news organisations to see that an issue is gaining traction online. So thanks to supporters like CNN's Don Riddel and Al Arabiya's Talal Al Haj, Mina's story was carried off social media and into millions of homes around the world by broadcast television. 

Diplomatic Avenue - @MinaGuli talks to Al Arabiya's @TalalAlhaj on why she is running 100 marathons in 100 days to raise awareness regarding #watercrisis https://t.co/ccMqdoYt08 pic.twitter.com/bGKoNkD77D

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) March 31, 2018

Highlighting the perilous state of our global water supply, the amazing @minaguli is planning 100 Marathons in 100 Days: https://t.co/RN1RGc5wnP

— Don Riddell (@donriddellCNN) March 26, 2018

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Technology isn’t the most disruptive force of change in the world

by Jeremy Rifkin

I’m going to  start on a very sombre note. I hope at the end it will be somewhat of a liberating reflection. GDP is slowing all over the world. Productivity is on the decline. 
Unemployment is up. Economists are projecting 20 more years of low productivity, and slow growth. 

If we think about the industrial revolutions we’ve had, half the human race are much better off than before. The other half still haven’t caught up. The wealth of the top 8 wealthiest people in the world equals the accumulated wealth of one half of the human population - 3.5 billion people. There’s clearly something wrong with how we’re organising the economic family. There’s nothing like this in history.

This economic crisis, which is structural, has given rise to a much more profound environmental crisis. 

We’ve had 3 industrial revolutions, all based on digging up the burial grounds of the carboniferous era and turning it into this civilisation, and we have spewed massive amounts of CO2, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide into the atmosphere. We’re now in real-time climate change. This is not a theory, it’s not imminent, it’s not on the horizon. It’s in the house. 

Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

What’s terrifying about Climate Change that isn’t often explained clearly is this: Climate Change changes the water cycles of the earth.  That’s what this is all about. We’re the watery planet. It’s never explained, and if it were, every parent and grandparent and teacher would be driven with one purpose and one agenda: to save our species in the next 7 decades. 

Our ecosystems have developed over millions of years based on the water cycles, the clouds that traverse our ecosystems. Here’s the rub: for every 1 degree our temperature goes up, the atmosphere is sucking up 7% more precipitation from the ground. The heat causes that. The water precipitates into the clouds quicker so we’re getting more concentrated precipitation - more violent water events- and also unpredictable. 

The Spring floods we've seen the US in the Carolina’s are supposedly one in a thousand year events -  they’ve had 6 in the past 2 and a half years. We're seeing more dramatic and prolonged droughts and wildfires [as experienced in the Western Cape of South Africa]. We’ve got category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes. The one that hit the Philippines last year was the most powerful ever recorded. This is the new normal. 

And because the freshwater melts from the Arctic and Antarctica are moving so quickly, the water currents in our great oceans are on an exponential runaway curve. We are expecting storms on an unprecedented level in the coming decades that have never been seen by humans on this planet. Infrastructure will be destroyed and lives will be lost.  

Our scientists now tell us we’re on the 6th mass extinction event of life on planet earth, and it doesn’t even make headlines. We’ve had 5 mass extinction events on earth in the past 450million years, well before humans even showed up. And when they happened, they happened quickly. There’s always this tipping point in the chemistry of the planet, then massive die-out. On the average, it took 10 million years to get life back on earth after the die-out.

Our scientists tell us we’re on the 6th extinction event. We’re chronicling it, it’s not a model. And we’re being told we’re going to lose upwards of 50% of all the life-forms on Earth likely in the next 8 decades. The last time this happened was 65 million years ago. But then it took thousands of years. This is 8 decades. This is a wipe-out. 

We’re just not taking in the enormity of this. We’re greenwashing. We’re going on with business as usual.  This is one of 20 issues. No. This is about Extinction. This is about survival. 

99.5% of species of life that have ever been on this little planet have come, and gone. Actuarially speaking those are not good odds.  Humans are the youngest species, we’ve been here just 200 thousand years. We’re the babies. There’s no guarantee we’re gonna make it. 

So what do we do? 

We need a new economic vision for the world, and it needs to be compelling. We need a game-plan to deploy that vision. It needs to be quick. It has to move as quickly in the developing world as the industrialised world. We need to be off the carbon-based civilisation. Off. OFF in less than four decades. If we want to have any chance of at least avoiding the abyss, it’s about adaptation, resiliency, and later on about regeneration. 

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Jeremy Rifkin

Jeremy Rifkin is the author of The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism and The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World. Mr. Rifkin is an advisor to the European Union and to heads of state around the world, and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington, DC.

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This is an extract from a talk by Jeremy Rifkin entitled "A history of the future – the world in 2025" delivered at the European Central Bank, published under a Creative Commons Attribution Licence

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Dave Duarte on How to Grow a Social Movement

Last month, Treeshake founder Dave Duarte spoke at Think Future, a gathering of 233 participants from 20 countries who all work in the field of early childhood development. 

In the video below Dave shares some of the methods that we at Treeshake have used to run campaigns with a combined reach of over 1 billion this year.  

Video by Innovation Edge, Nov 2017

You can download the slides to follow along with the presentation here (3mb .pdf)

What is Social Currency? Why do you need it, and how you get more of it?

You know what's cool? Social Currency is cool. Social Currency is what you have when you participate in a hot topic and contribute valuable discussion points. It's what you have when you discover some juicy gossip before anyone else. Social currency is knowing something that others want to know. It's relevance that you can exchange for benefits ranging from money to esteem to friendship and more. 

The paradox of social currency is that the more you share it, the more you have it. The trick is: it's time sensitive. You need to share your currency when people are most likely to find it interesting, and that is increasingly as it happens.

To see social currency in action, go to Twitter and have a look at the trending news topics. On every topic people are sharing memes and insights to the discussion. What do they get from it? Social Currency. But it doesn't spread evenly, here the Matthew Effect applies: "to those who have shall be given more"

Fashion is also a form of social currency. A look is hot for a small time, and if you get onto the trend early you benefit the most from it. Fashion through the lens of a sociologist is basically a conversation - it's showing that you're plugged into the stream of coolness and style. 

According to Wikipedia, the concept of social currency derives from Pierre Bourdieu's social capital theory and relates to increasing one's sense of community, granting access to information and knowledge, helping to form one's identity, and providing status and recognition.

Social Currency is one of the primary reasons why content spreads online. Jonah Berger, who has spent a decade investigating what makes things go viral, says there are 6 principles of virality (STEPPS):

1. Social currency – we share what makes us look good.

2. Triggers – we share what’s at the top of our minds.

3. Emotion – we share what we care about.

4. Public – we imitate what we see people around us are doing.

5. Practical value – we share things that have value to others.

6. Stories – We share stories, not information.

How do you get more of it? 

Gathering social currency is not just about sources of information, it is about your own skills and ability to make sense of the information you get and share it with panache. As with most things social, you need to develop momentum - developing habits and systems to feed you fresh insight, developing trusted sources, and growing your following as you interpret the info you get.  

Some practical tips: 

- participate in live events and conferences where thought-leaders and pioneers are speaking and attending. 

- curate your news feeds for relevant insight

- participate in Twitter trending topics and see how much traction you can get with your commentary. 

The Matthew Effect in Social Media

Why do seemingly inane videos like "Charlie Bit My Finger" have SO MANY views? It's the Matthew Effect in action.

Famous for being famous. New followers because you have so many already. To those who have shall be given more.

We call this the Matthew Effect. From the Bible: 

For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them. — Matthew 25:29

Algorithms tend to favour already-popular content. And we already know how persuasive popularity is. 

Via Wikipedia:

In the sociology of science, "Matthew effect" was a term coined by Robert K. Merton to describe how, among other things, eminent scientists will often get more credit than a comparatively unknown researcher, even if their work is similar; it also means that credit will usually be given to researchers who are already famous. For example, a prize will almost always be awarded to the most senior researcher involved in a project, even if all the work was done by a graduate student. This was later formulated by Stephen Stigler as Stigler's law of eponymy — "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer" — with Stigler explicitly naming Merton as the true discoverer, making his "law" an example of itself.

Merton furthermore argued that in the scientific community the Matthew effect reaches beyond simple reputation to influence the wider communication system, playing a part in social selection processes and resulting in a concentration of resources and talent. He gave as an example the disproportionate visibility given to articles from acknowledged authors, at the expense of equally valid or superior articles written by unknown authors. He also noted that the concentration of attention on eminent individuals can lead to an increase in their self-assurance, pushing them to perform research in important but risky problem areas.

So How Do You Beat the Matthew Effect

The Matthew Effect is not something you can beat, it's something you can use. Unfortunately it's true that it is harder to gain attention when you start. But it is also your best opportunity to be Surprising. 

This is why we work with the Hot Content model to develop social momentum. 

What "The Father of Modern Advertising" Can Teach Us About the Future of the Ad Agency Business

With so much changing about the advertising business, it is useful to go back to the origin of the industry to discover what has remained through all the changes. 

The most recent "Under the Influence" podcast featured  Albert Lasker, "The most interesting adman in the world" (and early leader of what was to become FCB).  

I loved this anecdote:

One day [Albert Lasker] was sitting in his offices, and a secretary handed him a note that said: 

"I am downstairs in the saloon. I can tell you what advertising is. I know you don't know. If you wish to know what advertising is, send the word 'Yes' down with the bellboy. Signed – John E. Kennedy."

Lasker was intrigued and sent the word 'Yes' down to the saloon.

Kennedy was shown into Lasker's office.

He was a strapping 6-foot tall, ex-Mountie who used to write ads for the Hudson's Bay Company.

When Kennedy asked Lasker if he knew what advertising was, Lasker said, "I think so. It's news." [news is perhaps what we'd call storytelling]

Kennedy said no, news was just a technique.

The secret to advertising, Kennedy said, can be summed up in just three words:

"Salesmanship in print."

Those three words would change the advertising world forever…

"Salesmanship in print" was an epiphany to the advertising world in 1904.

What's today's equivalent of "salesmanship in print"? Perhaps considering the proliferation of channels we could call it "mediated salesmanship". 

What is the timeless value proposition of the ad agency business?

Lasker's most successful campaigns seem to have something in common: a fresh perspective on an existing product, based on a consumer insight. For example: 

- from selling oranges to linking "Drink an Orange" to the breakfast ritual

- from puffed wheat to "cereal shot from a gun" 

- from birth control to "Planned Parenthood" 

- Kleenex napkin (for wiping off make-up) to a "Disposable handkerchief" 

This isn't storytelling per se, it is more about a creative perspective on the product. What we do is give consumers a different story about a product. And this enhances their experience of the product. This is perhaps a shift from story-telling (you tell the story), to story-making - where you offer a perspective, or do something, that gives people a new story to attach to a product or experience. 

This is pretty much what advertising agencies still do. So what else hasn't changed?

- Results: no matter what, clients want results, usually sales.

- Persuasion: it needs to change behavior in some way. It needs to be convincing. 

- Emotion: drives action & memorability

- Attention: clients want to be noticed. 

- Relevance: the work must be relatable and relevant to the target audience

- Insight:  great work is always based on an insight into human psychology of the target 

- Efficiency: clients will always want to pay less for more, and faster

- Recognition: clients will always want their brand to be more recognised

- Timing: when people see the ad, and the timing of the campaign in relation to whatever else is happening in the world is always going to be important. 

If we innovate in service of these values, we will thrive. Marketing today still requires creative perspectives and brilliant copywriting, but is also informed by user experience design, behavioral economics, smart targeting (e.g. Google Adwords and Programmatic), and machine learning (smart recommendations and adaptive offers).

What are the other timeless truths of advertising or your aspect of the business (whether production, or print, or traffic, or strategy...). Our world is changing fast! The practices change, the principles remain. 

How To Build A Movement For Change That Lasts

#Run4Water campaign Treeshake managed earlier in 2017 (Photo by Kelvin Trautman)

Environmental crises. Climate change. Poverty. Drug addiction. Homelessness. Unemployment. There are more than enough reasons to build a social movement for change. But how do you create a transformative powerhouse that does real good and lasts for the long term?

Five local and global change makers offer ten insights to show you how to change the world using the power of human networks.

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“My name is Suzanne Smith and this is basically the house where I live. In this house we used to sell drugs. We used to keep a lot of guns in this house. We were part of the Americans Gang because we sold drugs for them.” A single parent of two boys from the Cape Flats, Smith always dreamed of becoming a lawyer, but this goal faded after she got involved in local gangs. “I didn’t have any direction in life,” Smith says, adding: “It just felt like my life is over.”

Smith’s life was transformed at Reconstructed Living Lab (RLabs), a movement for change-cum-social enterprise situated in Athlone on the Cape Flats. We asked the founder of RLabs, Marlon Parker,  to share 10 principles that RLabs uses to help break the hold gangs and drugs have over some individuals:

1. Embrace Your Members

“When people come through our doors we accept them for who they are. Nothing else matters. We don’t see where the person is at, and judge that. We look at where the person is going,” says Parker. Acceptance is powerful, and at RLabs this sense of belonging not only helps individuals to change, but helps them to break away from violent gangs.
 

2. Don’t Just Inspire. Enable

It isn’t enough to inspire — a movement for change must be transformative. “When you want change you must create environments for people to take the next step, to go where their aspiration takes them,” Parker says. “It is not just about getting people fired up, it is about using that fire to create forward movement in a person’s life.”

Research shows that it is important to appreciate that a movement for social change is a human network — what Yale’s revered sociologist and physician, Nicholas Christakis, describes as “living, breathing entities that reproduce, and that have a kind of memory.” Christakis, the author of Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives [with James Fowler], says human networks are “very difficult to understand”. In an interview with Wired Magazine he reveals the rules he’s discerned about how human networks work:

• Rule One: “We shape our networks.” Christakis says that we literally create the networks around us.

• Rule Two: “Where you are located in the network has significant implications for the experience you have in life,” he says, explaining that as humans we’re affected by what is going on around us.

• Rule Three: Christakis says our friends affect us.

• Rule Four: And this is where it gets interesting. Christakis has found that in human networks there’s a domino effect or what he sometimes refers to as “social contagion”. Not only do our friends affect us, “but our friends’ friends’ friends affect us” he says, adding: “Things ripple through the network”.

• Rule Five: “The network has a life of its own,” says Christakis in Wired.

“When you start focusing on Nicholas Christakis’ ground breaking work on human networks you start to get an appreciation about just how careful one has to be when choosing the people and practices you employ to create a successful movement for change,” says Dave Duarte, CEO of Treeshake, educator and social entrepreneur.

3. Individuals Influence Each Other, And The Network

“What Christakis’ research reveals is surprising. Who you are friends with and spend time with will even influence aspects of yourself that you may think of as being your individual identity,” the CEO of Treeshake says. “Our networks, and our places in them, can affect our happiness and could even influence our weight. The epiphany is that who you spend time with helps shape who and what you are, and will influence your human network’s outcomes.”

4. Powered By Purpose

Given the complexities of human networks, Duarte says the best way to start building one is to keep a big picture in mind. “Go for small wins in the beginning, and remember that relationships are built one interaction at a time. But before you set out, the very first question you’ve got to ask yourself is: “What is my purpose?” Don’t get distracted by technology or social media tools. Distill your ‘why’, your reason and understand your purpose. This will take you far in the long run.”
 

5. Face To Face Beats Facebook

“At the start, meeting physically is vastly superior to meeting virtually,” says Duarte. “I don’t think there is anything we have that matches what happens when people meet in person. There is so much more information that is communicated in a physical context,” he explains. “More information means you can create deeper understanding and trust,” Duarte says.

Real world rituals and routines are a ready part of Gina Flash’s social change toolbox. Flash is the founder of a movement for social change with reach across South Africa called Mensch. A human network that mobilises positive social activism, Mensch has flourished since it was founded in 2014.

6. Create Relevance in People’s Lives.

“Creating a movement for change that thrives means understanding what’s important to the people in your movement. It is a conversation, so at Mensch we listen as well as talk,” says Flash. What’s been critical to the Jewish social change organisation Flash runs is listening deeply, doing regular benchmarks and surveying people to find out where they’re at and what they need. The founder of Mensch adds: “Don’t forget to be cognitively kind. People are busy so you don’t want to cause them more work — you want to add more value.”

7. Great Movements Are Multi-Generational

Both Flash and Parker embrace diversity of age. While gang violence is predominantly a youth problem, Parker actively seeks older members of the Cape Flats community to be part of his programme. “Our organisation is built on a family model, because the people who come to us more often than not come from broken homes. Older folk know a lot. In the Cape Flats they’ve seen the destructive cycles and this becomes the baseline we build on.” At Mensch, Flash says older people are part of her network because they can offer profound insights and have the experience that makes them perfect mentors.

8. Deep Connections Create Change

“We teach people how to network, so they get the best out of our events. We use different tactics like speed networking, to get people to know each other and trust each other,” says Flash. The Mensch Founder says this opens people to opportunities. “The more people understand who is in the network, the more people understand the reasons to connect. The more people connect deeply the more they can help each other and enable work that creates social change,” Flash says.

In Grahamstown, Admire Mare is a Global Excellence in Stature Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Rhodes School of Journalism and Media Studies, who reveals a key insight about building robust social movements for change.

9. Real World Builds Capacity

In his research Admire distinguishes between two types of movements. “What we see with social media is that we have social media enhanced movements that exist offline, but which champion their causes online,” Mare explains that these include the likes of the #FeesMustFall movements. “Then there are social media movements that start online and try to go offline. Some of these movements make it, others don’t,” he says.

“Social movements that start offline are good at capacity building, and creating trust between members, and because of this they have longevity. Online what we see is that people support movements, but the reason why they do this isn’t always apparent and these audiences can be fickle.” Mare advises that if you want to build a sustainable movement for change it is better to start offline and work to build capacity and trust. “It is very difficult to measure commitment online or to discern whether support is click activism. I am not saying that digital movements aren’t important, you just need to be aware that people aren’t always as committed online as they are when they turn up in real spaces.”

10. The Value Of Values

Never underestimate the power of organising with people who share the same principles. Says Duarte: “Shared values means that you can shortcut later conflicts about moral issues, because if you share the same principles with the people in your group you’ll have a basic moral compass in place. Remember that there’s a big difference between identity and values, so even if you are in a group that’s gathered around a similar identity, the values of the people in the group won’t necessarily be aligned.”

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Read more:

• Nicholas Christakis: Does This Social Network Make Me Look Fat? In Wired
• What really motivates people to rally around a cause in Fast Company
• Koketso Moeti on creating a platform to fight injustice at Destiny Magazine

WATCH:

• Derek Sivers - How To Start A Movement
• Nicholas Christakis - The hidden influence of social networks
• Zeynep Tufekci - The fickleness of social media groups
   

Resources:

• Transforming Organisations by Robert Gass [Pdf download]
• Creating Grassroots Movements for Change: A Field Manual [Pdf download]
• Building a social movement for change - The Beek Centre for Social Impact and Innovation

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Follow our interviewees on Twitter

@MarlonParker

@NAChristakis

@GinaFlash

@Admire2mare

@DaveDuarte

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Other Articles

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Treeshake is an education, consulting and communications company that connects organisations to change. All our articles are made available for republication, usually under a Creative Commons [CC-BY 4.0] license. You’re welcome to republish this article, but please attribute Treeshake and link back to www.treeshake.com/.

Which News Media Can You Trust To Tell The Truth?

Rudy Nadler-Nir is not the kind of person you’d expect to share a fake news story on Facebook. An anthro-geek, Nadler-Nir’s been in the digital sector since it was born, and his resume boasts names like Ogilvy. But late one night the social media reputation man saw a news item about actor Eli Wallach dying. A fan of the method actor who starred in ‘The Good, The Bad and The Ugly, Nadler-Nir clicked share.

“People started to respond emotionally. We shared memories of his movies, and of his place in our Cowboy-worshiping childhood,” he relates. But Wallach had been dead for quite some time. “Someone on my timeline chirped in: “he died in 2014”. It felt like being hit with a bucket of cold water.” 

“a fake news story wiped out $4billion of a company’s market value”

Fortunately the only harm done was to Nadler-Nir’s ego. But in the post-truth economy, there’s a lot more at play, like national elections or the safety of foreign nationals. If you shared the mendacious story ‘Pope Francis Shocks World, Endorses Donald Trump for President’, as close on a million people did, you helped to get Trump elected. Closer to home, the sharing of fake news has caused outbreaks of xenophobic violence in South Africa. Why just a few days ago a fake news story wiped out $4 billion of a cryptocurrency company’s market value.
 

But, how did we get here? 

We have arrived in the post truth economy where the news media is facing a crisis of confidence. “Trust in media has been eroded by two main factors. Until the arrival of the internet, traditional media was the only way to reach large audiences. The only voice was a trusted voice. Now media users have other authoritative sources of information, such as experts who write their own blog pieces,” says Anim van Wyk, Editor of Africa Check, that rightly declares on its site: “For democracy to function, public figures need to be held to account for what they say. The claims they make need to be checked, openly and impartially.” Africa Check is an independent, non-partisan organisation that does just this.

“The second reason is also related to the internet,” van Wyk adds. “Newspapers suffered a huge income blow with the arrival of online advertising. The result is a huge cutback in newsrooms and an even greater focus on content that will sell/gain clicks. With fewer people doing more, mistakes are bound to slip in more often.”

“news is no longer perceived as the truth”

Azad Essa, co-founder of @thedailyvox and a journalist at Al Jazeera agrees. “The obsessive focus on profits has seen accuracy relegated to second place,” he says, adding that the way people perceive news brands has changed. News is no longer perceived as ‘the truth’. “Today people think of the news as just another product, like a cup of coffee or slice of cake. It is not delineated as something different that has a moral compass.”

What exactly do South Africans think of the local news media?

Twitter offers insight. Here are some of the less-than-favourable views:

South African media are the biggest spin doctors in this country.

— Modern Day Pantsula (@Thabiso_Dlamini) June 22, 2017

I dunno. South African media could be worse than govt. Xxx https://t.co/vo7wazypKE

— Dominique Smith (@flutterby107) June 28, 2017

South African media is corrupt, Period https://t.co/8NERQQIamJ

— PravinCatastrophe (@MogaleMaeko) June 24, 2017

What does the research say? 

But revelations of paid and fake Twitter accounts means accurate crowd insights from the social networking service proves tricky, so let’s turn to research. In 2014 FutureFact did research on whether journalists were trusted more than politicians. The results? “76% have confidence in our journalists,” the researchers wrote at futurefact.co.za “This is not unequivocal as only 23% have complete confidence and 53% some confidence.”

Compare this to the US, where trust in the news media is worryingly low. Gallup reports that Americans' trust and confidence in the mass media “to report the news fully, accurately and fairly” has dropped to its lowest level since the research company started polling. 32% of Americans say they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the media, down eight percent from last year.

So which news media can you trust to tell the truth? That’s something you’re going to have to determine for yourself, using a healthy dose of skepticism, burgeoning curiosity and the will not to take anything at face value. To help you on your way, study Africa Check’s guide on how to stop falling for fake news. And read the advice from SA's media experts.

advice from some of SA’s best news minds & media pundits.

ALASTAIR OTTER (@alastairotter)

Alastair Otter, a partner in the Media Hack Collective : “When you see a story that sounds incredible, look for a second or third source to determine if it is true. Visit the sites of known reliable publishers and check if they are also covering the news. If they aren’t then be wary. Not finding a second source for a news story is not an absolute indicator that the story is false, but more of a caution.”

Azad Essa (@azadessa)

Azad Essa, Al Jazeera journalist and co-founder of The Daily Vox: “Fake news has always been with us. The world’s always been filled with con men. Stop pretending that people are going to spoon feed the truth to you. You have to take charge. The internet gives you the space, information and tools you need to really take charge. You have to wise up and follow the money.”

Charl Blignaut (@sa_poptart)
 

Charl Blignaut, writer, journalist and pop culture critic at City Press: “The antidote is a return to old school journalism, following and reading established journalists who operate under the press code, who refuse bribes, who are not friends of click baiting.”

Gayle Edmunds (@GayleMahala)

Gayle Edmunds, managing editor of City Press: “If everyone read everything with even just a pinch of skepticism it would be a giant leap in putting a stop to the rapid spread of lies on social media.”

Glenda Daniels

Glenda Daniels, Senior Lecturer Media Studies, Wits:  “Pause and take a moment before pressing the retweet or repost button if the news is sensational or sounds like it could be false. Don’t become part of the vicious cycle.”

Jane Duncan (@Duncanjane)

Jane Duncan, Professor of Journalism, University of Johannesburg: "Sweatshops don’t encourage ethical journalism. We must give journalism the space to practice ethical journalism, which relates to fair labour rights. So much is produced by freelancers who are badly paid, if they are paid at all. Fair labour rights create an environment where journalists can adhere to ethical standards.

A happy newsroom can lead to a newsroom where journalists invest more time, effort an energy into stories. Journalism then becomes a vocation, rather than just something they do to put food on the table. We need to create environments where journalists will stay longer and give more. We are not having a discussion about what media organisations need to do to create ethical environments for good journalism. We need to do this."

Kanthan Pillay (@KanthanPillay)

Kanthan Pillay, Group Head: Online for E Media Holdings and former CEO of Yfm: "Toss out the adjectives. Journalism is about fact, and adjectives are about opinion. So when you see the word “controversial”, read no further. It’s controversial only because the journalist is lazy. If you strip off the adjectives you see the facts, and you can start ascertaining what the truth is. Obviously ensure that the news stories you consume have a multiplicity of credible sources."

Mahlatse Gallens (@hlatseentle)

Mahlatse Gallens, political editor of News24: "Online many fake news peddlers often try brand themselves similarly to established news organisations. For instance they would use the colours of News24 but change the name a little. At News24 we advise people to double check the sites they go to. On big stories - like the recent fake story of Desmond Tutu passing - remember that if other media houses don't cover the story this should act as a warning bell. In general South Africans critique everything they read. This is very welcome. Use this attitude, but double check the sources of all information. Go and find the original documentation or sources of stories. For instance go and read the Gupta emails yourself. Don't make click baiters and fake news peddlers rich. Remember using social comes with responsibility and you don't want to run foul of the law when it comes to sharing information. Take responsibility for what you share."  

Rudy Nadler-Nir (@RudyN)

Rudy Nadler-Nir, MD at DIGIACS, Reputation Observation and Analysis Specialists: “As a rule of thumb, I differentiate between “reliable media providers” (BBC, Reuters, AP, Washington Post, The Guardian, Haaretz, Al Jazeera, News24, M&G [Mail & Guardian], Daily Maverick, Eyewitness News) and the rest. I use news aggregators (Flipboard and Feedly, as well as Google News) so I am able to corroborate news that seems not so kosher. Lately I am less trusting of friends and colleagues on Facebook and, to a lesser extent, Twitter. If news breaks on Twitter or Facebook (for example, the massacre at the Manchester Arena), I check through my “reliable media providers”, to see if anything came through.”

Siki Mgabadeli (@sikimgabadeli)

Siki Mgabadeli, financial journalist at Moneyweb: “The first thing is to check the source - is it an established publication? Is it one you’ve known for a long time and has journalists you have trusted? Are the people posting stories actual journalists? If not, then who do they represent? Are there vested interests at play? Before sharing an article, see if it’s something that’s been quoted elsewhere, by a reputable news organization. Who is sharing it is very important. Most times, you can work out a person or platform’s agenda by looking at what else they’ve shared and their political/ideological leanings. Check everything before you share.”

Thapelo Lekgowa (@Thapelolekgowa)

Thapelo Lekgowa, photographer, researcher and former journalist who helped to break the Marikana Story: "It is always best to be skeptical and to build your own view on issues. The people that I know phone other people to verify news, so if there is a story in Bloemfontein they'd phone someone in Bloemfontein. If you want to know something go directly to the source of the story where you can. If I want to know something about the ANC I'll go and have a drink with an ANC member in our local bar. People don't trust the national news media, but trust community journalism and reporting which happens through social media more. The traditional new media don't carry local news that are relevant to the people in most cases. The news media chooses what matters to the news media which is why people have lost trust in the media. The news media no longer carries stories that matter to the people."

William Bird (@Billbobbird)

William Bird, Director of Media Monitoring Africa:  “Don’t trust social media. Click through links, and ensure that stories link through to news headlines at a credible site. Make sure that you consume a diversity of news content. The reason for this is important. If a big story is going to break, it will be carried by a range of media. Diversity allows a better and different picture and encourages a greater level of skepticism of stories that appear, that don’t fit the dominant narrative.”

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Resources:

• A Fake News Primer via Wits Journalism & Media Studies

• Africa Check’s Guide on how to spot fake news

 Read more:

• Why We’re Post Fact by Peter Pomerantsev in Granta

• How fake news is driving SA's political agendas by BrandsEye on TimesLive

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Menell Media Exchange is a project of Duke University, one of the world’s premier academic institutions.  #MMX17 will bring together leaders in the media to discuss Truth and Trust in Media.